In case you missed it this morning, Civil Beat is out with new survey results showing Democrat Mazie Hirono with a 55-39 lead over Republican Linda Lingle in Hawaii’s U.S. Senate race.
A few hours after we published our numbers, the Lingle camp attacked the messenger with this press release from the desk of campaign manager Bob Lee:
The Civil Beat poll is just not credible. It was only two months ago that Civil Beat put out a glaringly inaccurate poll showing Ed Case winning the Democrat Primary for U.S. Senate. Their prediction was obliterated by the Election Day reality of Ed losing by almost 17 points. And, now, here they go again. It’s difficult to take these new figures seriously.
This time they try to explain away their past goofs by blaming the kind of voice they used to conduct the poll, but when they change voices they get the same bad results. Their methodology is so flawed that they get the same wrong result no matter what voice they use.
They were substantially wrong in the Democrat Primary Election, and they will be wrong in this race by a lot. Our own internal polling is showing an incredibly competitive race with significant leads in key parts of the state and key demographics.
Is that “here they go again” line in the first paragraph a Ronald Reagan reference? Either way, for more about our “past goofs,” you’ll probably want to check out Civil Beat Poll - What the Heck Happened?
It’s worth noting that Civil Beat, using the same methodology, has had Lingle closer to Hirono — just five points behind in June — than any other independent survey of the race this year.
Lingle has yet to release her own polling figures since the primary election, an indication of what they’re actually seeing internally.
— Michael Levine